Pii: 0043-1354(91)90046-s

Abstraet--A budget model is developed to predict the long-term response of a lake to changes in its phosphorus loading. This model computes total phosphorus and hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations, taking sediment-water interactions into account. The lake is treated as two segments: the water and a surface sediment layer. A total phosphorus budget for the water accounts for inputs due to external loading and recycle from the sediments. It reflects losses due to flushing and settling. The sediment layer gains total phosphorus by settling and loses total phosphorus by recycle and burial. The recycle from the sediments to the water is dependent on the levels of sediment total phosphorus and hypolimnetic oxygen. Hypolimnetic oxygen concentration is estimated with a semi-empirical model. The model is applied to Shagawa Lake. An analysis is performed to demonstrate how its predictions replicate in-lake changes not possible with simpler phosphorus budget models.